The West European heavy trailer market faces a challenging outlook for 2024 and 2025, with sales expected to decline further before rebounding.
According to CLEAR International’s November 2024 forecast, demand for heavy trailers will decrease by 8.8% in 2024, following a 10.9% drop in 2023. However, an optimistic growth period is expected from 2025 to 2028, with demand likely to reach the historic peaks last seen in 2008 and 2018.
Despite a recent interest rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) to 3.4% — with similar reductions in the UK, Canada, Sweden, and Switzerland — trailer registrations remain weaker than anticipated, especially during August 2024. This slowdown has led to a downgrade in sales forecasts for the next two years, with a more positive outlook forecasted for 2025 as the West European economy strengthens.
Trailer production in Europe has been on a volatile path. While production levels recovered significantly after COVID-19, the sector has been hit by declining exports, particularly to Russia and Belarus. Chinese manufacturers have increasingly filled this gap, further impacting European production. As a result, major trailer exporters, especially in Germany, have been forced to reduce output in 2024, resorting to shorter work weeks and temporary plant closures.
German trailer manufacturers, traditionally among the highest producers in Europe, are struggling with low investment levels, economic pressures, and the ongoing impact of the war in Ukraine. Trailer demand has also been affected by declining road transport demand, which fell by 4% in 2023, mirroring the downturn during the 2020 pandemic.
Gary Beecroft, director of CLEAR International, noted, “Trailer market sales for 2024/25 will be lower than predicted in the May 2024 forecast report, but subsequent years will remain close to the expected market trajectory, eventually matching the historic peaks of 2008 and 2018.”
The West European Trailer Market Report (November 2024) provides a comprehensive analysis and forecast for the sector through 2028, outlining the expected pace and areas of market recovery. The report is available from CLEAR International and includes insights into East European and global trailer markets.
