The autonomous truck industry is undergoing a remarkable resurgence, with delivery numbers continuously setting new records. Companies across Asia, Europe, and the United States are entering the commercialization testing phase with fervor.
Autonomous trucks are proving their value by reducing transportation costs and optimizing Total Cost of Ownership (TCO). By 2044, it is anticipated that the global trucking fleet will include an additional half a million L4 autonomous drivers, while human drivers will transition to supervisory roles or work in less developed regions. This industry is forecasted to grow at an annual rate of 25.6% over the next two decades, according to IDTechEx’s latest report, “Autonomous Trucks 2024-2044: Technologies, Trends, Forecasts.”
Addressing Pain Points
Autonomous trucks have long been considered ideal for commercializing autonomous driving systems. Unlike robotaxis and other mobility services, autonomous trucks do not need to prioritize user experience or societal integration. Instead, they address critical industry issues, with driver management being paramount. The trucking industry has struggled with labor shortages exacerbated by unstable social conditions and the COVID-19 pandemic, which have deterred many from pursuing careers as truck drivers. The aging population further worsens the labor shortage, creating a bottleneck in land transportation. Higher wages to attract new drivers increase operating costs.
Safety is another significant concern. In China’s freight industry, there are 3.7 accidents per million kilometers, equivalent to one traffic accident per driver every 16 months. The annual insurance payout per vehicle is about $4,286, with driver error and lack of assisting equipment accounting for 72% of accidents. In contrast, heavy-duty trucks and buses in the United States have 0.1 accidents per million kilometers, with 1% being fatal. This disparity highlights the differences in road infrastructure, management regulations, and insurance costs between developed and less developed regions.
Autonomous long-haul trucks have the potential to reduce accidents, as they are not prone to distractions and can communicate more efficiently with other vehicles or devices. IDTechEx’s report delves into these pain points, emphasizing why the industry is turning to autonomy.
Commercialization Paths
In 2024, autonomous truck companies are conducting commercial tests to address these challenges. IDTechEx has identified two main commercialization paths based on government regulations on autonomous vehicle testing.
Path 1: Gradual Upgrade from L2 to L4
Led by Inceptio, this path involves upgrading the in-vehicle autonomous driving system from Level 2 (L2) to Level 4 (L4). L2 advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) pave the way for commercialization and gather real-world data for L4 systems. While L2 cannot replace drivers, it reduces fatigue, extends driving distances, and enhances safety. In China, L2-L3 ADAS trucks allow carriers to reduce from two drivers to one on longer routes.
Path 2: High-Quality L4 Fixed Routes
This path focuses on establishing high-quality L4 fixed routes (200-400 miles) for autonomous or unmanned transportation. Einride, a notable example, operates L4 level routes in the UK, Norway, and Sweden. Companies pre-plan routes and set up auxiliary facilities to ensure smooth L4 autonomous driving operations. Einride’s “Grids” network addresses fleet optimization, tractor swaps, and battery management, already operating independently in Europe and the US.
IDTechEx’s report provides a comprehensive analysis of these paths and offers region-specific and market-specific forecasts. At present, L4 autonomous trucks require efficient route planning to reduce uncertainties and improve Operational Design Domains (ODD). The L4 hub-to-hub transport approach consolidates cargo from multiple clients, maximizing vehicle energy use and enhancing utilization.
Global Commercialization Leaders
IDTechEx has tracked regional leaders in autonomous truck sales, revealing significant disparities among them.
China: Inceptio and DeepWay lead in mass production and commercial delivery of autonomous trucks, leveraging vertical integration and supply chain dominance to maintain their market leadership.
Europe: Einride excels with L4 level commercial operations, supported by a highly integrated management platform overseeing fleet operations and energy management.
United States: Despite early advancements in L4 road testing, regulatory challenges have slowed progress. Companies like Kodiak and Aurora lead in test mileage, with mass production anticipated soon.
